Government panel estimates half of India could be COVID infected by February 2021!
Galatta | Oct 20, 2020, 08:41 pm
The entire world had been stymied by the sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 Novel Corona Virus Pandemic, which caused most nations to go into lockdown mode. Normal life as we knew it, was disrupted and even now as we are easing back to a semblance of normalcy we have to bear in mind that the deadly Corona Virus has not been eradicated nor an effective vaccine been made available yet! However, even as some countries are reporting a second wave of the Virus, the spread seems to be coming under control in India with the daily numbers going down slowly and the recovery rate increasing significantly. Just yesterday, a study by a Government appointed panel revealed that India had crossed the peak of the COVID spread and that if all safety precautions are followed, would be able to bring the Virus under control by February, 2021!
Now, a Government Committee tasked with projecting the extent of the Virus spread has come out with the statistic that by February 2021, almost half of the entire population of India would have been infected by the Corona Virus. India's current population is estimated to be 1.3 billion people and the current total number of recorded positive cases has already touched 7.55 million. International news agency Reuters has quoted Professor Manindra Agrawal (Prof at Indian Institute of Technology - Kanpur & member of the Committee) as saying, "Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February." One report states that the Committee's estimate of the current Virus spread is much higher than the 14% estimated by serological surveys conducted by the Government.
Prof. Agrawal has stated that it is impossible for the serological surveys to get the numbers right because of the sheer population size on which it is being conducted. The Committee has relied upon a newly evolved mathematical model to arrive at their findings, which also includes unreported cases. Echoing the warnings being constantly stated by all healthcare officials, this Committee also states that these findings would only hold good if people followed all safety precautions mandated by the health officials. Failing to do so could even result in the COVID cases spiking by upto 2.6 million cases in a single month. With the festival season already upon us, it is imperative to maintain social distancing and wash our hands regularly as well use a face mask in public!